The latest housing market outlook shows strong upward momentum in the Dutch housing market. As of September 2025, the forecast points to an average price increase of **8.97% over the next 6 months and 11.54% over 12 months.
Risk outlook:
- Short term: only a 5% chance of price decline within 6 months.
- Medium term: probability of decline rises to 29% over 12 months, but the overall trend remains strongly positive.
How does this compare to banks?
- ABN Amro: +7.0% for 2025, +3.0% for 2026
- DNB: +7.5% for 2025, +4.0% for 2026
- ING: +5.5% for 2025, +6.5% for 2026
- Rabobank: +8.6% for both 2025 and 2026
- Van Bruggen: +5.5% for 2025
These forecasts are broadly aligned but generally lower than the market model’s outlook, especially for 2026.
Conclusion: Both independent forecasts and bank expectations point to continued housing price growth. However, with a potential 11.5% rise over the next year, affordability could deteriorate further for first-time buyers unless supply increases significantly.
