The Dutch housing market continues to evolve rapidly. As we enter November 2025, major Dutch banks have published their latest forecasts for what we can expect for the remainder of 2025 and throughout 2026. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to purchase your first home, or an existing homeowner considering a move, these insights are essential for your planning.
š Quick Summary: What the Experts Say
ABN AMRO: 8.7% increase in 2025, followed by 3% in 2026
Rabobank: 8.6% in 2025, 5.7% in 2026
ING: 5.5% growth in 2025, 6.5% in 2026
De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB): 7.5% in 2025, 4% in 2026 and 2027
Average house price: Q3 2025 reached ā¬487,150 (5.13% year-on-year increase)
The consensus is clear: house prices will continue rising in 2025, though at varying rates according to different banks.
š Price Development: Strong Growth in 2025
The Current Situation
The average selling price of existing owner-occupied homes in the third quarter of 2025 was ā¬487,150. This represents a 5.13% increase compared to a year earlier. Through August, prices were even 7.7% higher than in 2024.
This strong price growth is primarily driven by a combination of factors: persistent housing shortages, stable employment with good wage growth, and moderate but stable mortgage interest rates.
Bank Forecasts in Detail
ABN AMRO is the most optimistic with a forecast of 8.7% price increase for 2025. The bank has even revised its forecast upward from 8% to 8.7%, indicating a stronger-than-expected market.
Rabobank follows with 8.6% for 2025. Their analysis shows that growth outside the Randstad is stronger than in the major cities themselves, where prices are already very high in some cases.
ING is more cautious with 5.5% for 2025, but sees more potential for 2026 with 6.5% growth. This may indicate they expect current demand pressure to continue for some time.
De Nederlandsche Bank expects 7.5% growth in 2025, followed by a moderate 4% in both 2026 and 2027.
Regional Differences
Important to know: not all regions in the Netherlands experience the same price development. In major cities like Amsterdam and Utrecht, prices are already so high that growth there is leveling off. Outside these areas, in the provinces, we see stronger increases because more buyers can stay within their budget there.
š Transaction Volume: More Homes Sold
Expected Increase in Sales
Not only are prices rising, the number of homes sold is also increasing. This is actually surprising, as higher prices normally lead to fewer sales.
Rabobank expects that in 2025, no fewer than 238,000 existing owner-occupied homes will change hands. That's an increase of more than 15% compared to 2024. For 2026, they expect 227,000 transactions.
ABN AMRO forecasts growth of approximately 12.5% in the number of transactions for 2025.
Why More Sales?
This increase is due to several factors:
1. Improved incomes: Due to collective labor agreements and a tight labor market, wages are rising, enabling more people to qualify for a mortgage
2. Stable interest rates: Mortgage rates hover around 4-4.5%, which while higher than the historically low rates of a few years ago, remains predictable
3. Additional supply: Investors are selling rental properties to private individuals due to the Affordable Rent Act and higher taxes on real estate investments
š° Mortgage Interest Rates: Stable at 4-4.5%
Current Interest Rate Level
In early 2025, the average 10-year fixed mortgage rate with NHG is around 4.4%. For mortgages without NHG and with 100% financing, this is approximately 4.7%.
While this is higher than the historically low rates of 1-2% we saw a few years ago, analysts expect a gradual decline.
Interest Rate Forecast
Market analysts predict that the 10-year fixed rate could gradually fall to between 3% and 3.5% by the end of 2025. This could provide a positive boost to the purchasing power of home seekers.
However, interest rates remain an important consideration: small shifts can have a major impact on your monthly payments and borrowing capacity.
šļø Housing Shortage: Still Critical
Construction Production Lags Behind
One of the biggest challenges remains the housing shortage. According to CBS, only 31,550 homes were completed in the first half of 2025. This is a decrease of 3.55% compared to a year earlier.
The government's goal is to build 100,000 new homes annually, but according to ABF Research, this target won't be reached until 2027. This means the shortage will continue for now.
Impact on the Market
Due to this persistent shortage, demand continues to exceed supply, driving prices up. According to forecasts, there will still be a national housing shortage of 2.2% in 2040.
For buyers, this means: competition remains fierce, and bids above asking price are still the norm in many regions.
š” What Does This Mean for You?
For First-Time Buyers
As a first-time buyer in the housing market, it's important to be realistic about your possibilities:
- Check your maximum borrowing capacity: Use our mortgage calculator to see how much you can borrow
- Account for all costs: Not just the mortgage, but also transfer tax, notary fees, and potential renovations
- Take advantage of the starter exemption: Up to age 35, you pay no transfer tax up to ā¬555,000 (2026)
- Search broadly: Don't just look in major cities, but also outside where prices are lower
For Movers
If you already own a home and want to move:
- Calculate your equity: How much is your home worth compared to your mortgage debt?
- Timing matters: Do you sell first, or buy first?
- Watch out for double housing costs: If you buy before selling
- Consider the costs: Real estate agent fees, transfer tax (10% for second home)
For Sellers
Considering selling your home:
- 2025 is still a seller's market: High demand and low supply work in your favor
- Prepare well: Ensure good photos, an energy label, and complete small repairs if needed
- Expect bids above asking price: In many areas, this is still normal
šÆ Practical Tips for 2025-2026
1. Calculate Your Possibilities in Advance
Before you start house hunting, it's crucial to know what you can borrow. Factors affecting your borrowing capacity:
- Your gross annual income (and your partner's)
- Existing loans or debts
- The mortgage interest rate level
- Whether you want to take out NHG
Use our mortgage calculator for immediate insight: https://huiskoopwijzer.nl/en#calculators
2. Account for All Costs
The purchase price isn't the only thing you pay. Also include:
- Transfer tax: 2% (or 0% for starters up to ā¬555,000 in 2026)
- Notary costs: Approximately ā¬1,500
- Valuation costs: Approximately ā¬600
- Building inspection report: ā¬500-ā¬800
- Mortgage advice: ā¬1,500-ā¬2,500
Calculate your buyer's costs here: https://huiskoopwijzer.nl/en/buyers-costs
3. Take Advantage of NHG Where Possible
The NHG limit rises to ā¬470,000 in 2026. With NHG you get:
- A lower mortgage rate (approximately 0.3% discount)
- Protection in case of payment problems
- Assured settlement if selling underwater
4. Timing and Market Development
The expectation is that prices will rise strongly in 2025, but that growth will level off in 2026. For buyers, this means:
- Buying early in 2025 may still be advantageous
- But note: higher rates mean higher monthly payments
- Wait too long, and prices may have risen further
ā Frequently Asked Questions
Will house prices keep rising?
Yes, all major banks expect prices to continue rising in 2025, albeit to varying degrees (5.5% to 8.7%). For 2026, more moderate growth of 3% to 6.5% is expected.
Is now a good time to buy a house?
That depends on your personal situation. If you're financially ready (stable income, savings for additional costs, long-term perspective), then 2025 can still be a suitable time. Waiting may mean higher prices, but possibly lower interest rates.
Will mortgage rates fall?
Market analysts expect rates could gradually fall to 3-3.5% by the end of 2025. However, this is not certain and depends on economic developments and the ECB.
How much can I borrow with my income?
As a rule of thumb, you can borrow approximately 4.7 times your gross annual income. With an income of ā¬50,000, that's about ā¬235,000. The exact amount depends on multiple factors such as other debts and the mortgage rate.
Calculate your exact borrowing capacity: https://huiskoopwijzer.nl/en#calculators
Do I need to hurry to buy?
Not necessarily. While prices are expected to continue rising in 2025, it's more important to be financially well-prepared. A hasty purchase without proper preparation can lead to problems later.
š Conclusion: A Strong Market with Nuances
The Dutch housing market continues to perform strongly in 2025. All major banks expect further price increases, albeit with different percentages. The average expectation is around 7-8% for 2025.
For 2026, a leveling off is expected, but prices will likely continue to rise. The structural housing shortage, combined with good employment and relatively stable interest rates, creates continued market pressure.
Key Insights:
- Prices still rising strongly in 2025 (5.5% - 8.7%)
- Transaction volume increasing (12.5% - 15%)
- Mortgage rates remain around 4-4.5% for now
- Housing shortage remains the core problem
- Regional differences are growing
For Buyers:
Be well-prepared, calculate your possibilities in advance, and account for all costs. The market remains competitive, so make sure you can move quickly when you find a suitable home.
For Sellers:
2025 remains a favorable year to sell due to high demand and limited supply. Ensure good presentation and expect interest above asking price.
Important:
These forecasts are indicative and based on the current economic situation. Changes in employment, interest rates, or government policy could influence developments.
š Useful Links
- Calculate your maximum mortgage: https://huiskoopwijzer.nl/en#calculators
- Buyer's costs calculator: https://huiskoopwijzer.nl/en/buyers-costs
- Calculate monthly payments: https://huiskoopwijzer.nl/en#calculators
- Mortgage rules 2025 vs 2026: https://huiskoopwijzer.nl/en/blog/dutch-mortgage-rules-2025-vs-2026-complete-guide
š Sources
1. ABN AMRO (2025). "Rise in house prices to continue in 2025 and 2026" - Link
2. Rabobank (2025). "Dutch housing market quarterly: Even higher house prices and more house sales on the horizon" - Link
3. De Nederlandsche Bank (2025). "Housing market developments" - Link
4. CBS (2025). "Dutch residential property market statistics Q3 2025"
5. Global Property Guide (2025). "Netherlands Residential Property Market Analysis" - Link
