The Dutch housing market continues to evolve rapidly, with 2025 marking a year of remarkable price increases and 2026 expected to bring moderated but steady growth. Understanding these trends is crucial for anyone looking to buy a home in the Netherlands.
Record Breaking Prices in 2025
For the first time ever, the national average transaction price surpassed the €500,000 threshold, reaching €502,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025 according to NVM figures. This represents a substantial 8.5% increase compared to 2024, with prices in the third quarter already showing year on year growth of 7.8%.
This dramatic rise wasn't just about numbers. The market showed exceptional activity, with NVM brokers selling 47,600 homes in Q4 2025 alone. Nearly half of these sales went to first time buyers, demonstrating that despite high prices, many people are still finding ways to enter the market.
What to Expect in 2026: Moderation but Not Stagnation
While 2025 showed explosive growth, 2026 is expected to tell a different story. Major Dutch financial institutions predict more moderate price increases between 3% and 6%, with most settling around the 4 to 5% mark.
Rabobank expects 4.8% growth in 2026, ABN AMRO predicts a 3% climb, ING projects around 4% growth, and De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) anticipates approximately 4% for both 2026 and 2027.
This slowdown doesn't signal a cooling market, but rather a normalization after the exceptional growth of 2025. The fundamental imbalance between demand and supply persists, keeping upward pressure on prices.
Regional Differences: Where Growth is Strongest
One of the most interesting trends is the geographical shift in price growth. While the Randstad (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Utrecht, The Hague) traditionally led price increases, 2026 is expected to see the strongest growth outside this urban core.
Groningen and Drenthe are experiencing the most dramatic increases, driven by buyers from the Randstad seeking more affordable options. The Overig Groningen region is expected to see the highest price growth at around 7% in 2026. Meanwhile, North Holland is showing signs of cooling, suggesting affordability constraints are finally having an impact in the most expensive areas.
Mortgage Interest Rates: Stability with Slight Fluctuations
After the turbulent interest rate environment of recent years, 2025 brought relative stability. Mortgage rates for 5 to 10 year fixed rate periods hovered around 3.5% for most of the year. However, towards the end of 2025, most banks announced slight increases.
For 2026, experts expect rates to remain relatively stable or decline slightly by about 0.5 percentage points. This stability is crucial for maintaining buying power and buyer confidence, especially as wage growth of 4.1% is predicted for 2026, supporting lending capacity.
Want to see what different rates mean for your monthly costs? Check our interest rate comparison calculator to see the difference directly.
Transaction Volumes: A Slight Decline
2025 saw a remarkable surge in transactions, with approximately 239,000 homes changing hands, a 16% increase. However, for 2026, a slight decline is expected to around 227,000 transactions.
This reduction is partly attributed to the expected decrease in sales by investors. During 2025 and early 2026, many investors sold rental properties due to policy changes, temporarily increasing supply. As this wave subsides, the market is expected to tighten again.
The Persistent Supply Challenge
Despite increased construction activity, the supply of new homes has shown a downward trend since 2023. The government's ambitious goal of 100,000 new homes per year remains out of reach, and this supply constraint continues to be the main driving force behind price increases.
The imbalance between housing demand and supply remains the fundamental problem plaguing the Dutch housing market. Until this gap is meaningfully addressed, significant price corrections seem unlikely.
What This Means for Buyers
For first time buyers: The market remains challenging but not impossible. With nearly half of Q4 2025 sales going to starters, it's clear that entering the market is still feasible, especially in regions outside the Randstad.
For movers: The equity you've built in your current home has likely grown substantially, providing a stronger position for your next purchase. However, competition remains fierce for desirable properties.
For regional considerations: If you're flexible on location, regions in Groningen, Drenthe, or other areas outside the Randstad may offer better value and appreciation potential.
For mortgage planning: With rates expected to remain stable or decline slightly, locking in a longer fixed rate period can provide peace of mind.
Looking Ahead to 2027
Looking beyond 2026, most forecasters expect continued price growth in 2027, with RaboResearch anticipating 5.5% growth. The consensus is clear: the Dutch housing market will remain tight, competitive, and expensive for the foreseeable future.
The key takeaway? If you're planning to buy, understanding this market dynamic is essential. Prices are unlikely to fall significantly, so waiting for a major correction could mean missing out on years of potential wealth building.
Use our mortgage calculator to see what you can borrow, and explore our step by step guide to navigate the buying process with confidence.
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Sources:
Rabobank Housing Market Quarterly
ABN AMRO Housing Market Forecast
